An outlet for musings, observations and futureneering from the company helping you to transition into the connection economy
Here’s a link worth following. It contains a few images of cement usage around the world by the big users. China’s usage for the past 4 years is staggering.
We all know this, but seeing it in this particular format leaves you with your mouth hanging wide open. It certainly did for me.
I’ve not been to China. I can’t imagine what must be going on to be using this kind of volume?
I live and work between Johannesburg and London. For the past few months, South Africa has been plagued by the short supply of electricity. This is due to lack of planning for the sustained economic boom we have experienced over the past decade. As early as 1998, forecasters were warning that South Africa would run out of electricity in about 2007. Well, to be clear - that we would reach the point where demand and supply were so closely aligned that any blip in the system would result in blackouts. That is precisely what happened.
The problem should soon be resolved by the opening of new power stations (they take some time to build!) and the recommissioning of old power stations that had been mothballed. In this respect, South Africa is not unlike other countries that have experienced electricity shortages due to economic growth and bad planning. Recent examples include Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and California.
I am planning to spend the next 3-4 years in my London base, but it seems I will not escape the power problem. According to The Economist, England faces the same dark future. The expected date of blackouts - 2012. Just in time for the Olympics in London.
Read the article here (subscription may be required), or an excerpt below.
Green and black
A looming supply crunch causes problems for a government with green ambitionsApr 3rd 2008
From The Economist print editionRHETORIC is a sad fact of political life, and most voters are smart enough to know that grand promises made in the heat of a parliamentary debate or an election battle should be taken with a pinch of salt. But on energy policy the gap between claim and reality is now wide enough to be embarrassing. Grandiose pronouncements about climate change (“our greatest obligation to future generations”, according to Alistair Darling, the chancellor of the exchequer) stand incongruously next to Britain’s anaemic record on cutting its greenhouse-gas emissions, which have stayed stubbornly unchanged for years.
That has led to much rancour, with greens accusing the government of “betrayal”. And in the midst of all this acrimony another problem looms: Britain is beginning to run short of electricity. Reversing this trend seems likely to turn up the heat even more.
The Economist recently ran a fascinating little piece on how activists and companies need to work towards a common outcome and goal. Read it here (subscription may be required) - or an extract below. It may be idealistic, but it is a wonderful goal to have, and certainly is a requirement if we are really going to change the world.
Strange bedfellows
Companies as activists
May 22nd 2008LAST month Tom Katzenmeyer, vice-president of investor relations at Limited Brands, met representatives of the government of the Canadian province of Alberta. Limited Brands is an American apparel firm with sales of $10.1 billion last year; its best-known division is Victoria’s Secret, which sells lingerie. And what was the topic of discussion? The firm’s worries over threatened caribou habitats.
We all know how ubiquitous mobile phones have become. In poorer countries, where communication technologies have been slow to arrive, the take up of mobile telephony is nothing less than breathtaking. But, the future brilliance of mobile phones lies not in their communication ability, but in the add ons that can be made to these little computers we all carry around with us. A decade from now, mobile phones will be personal digital devices hooked up with tens and hundreds of functions.
I recently blogged about the ability of MP3 players to replace stethoscopes - of course, any MP3 and microphone enbaled mobile phone could do the same. I also recently read about mobile phones being used by diabetics - they have a little needle embedded in them. A click of a button, the needle pops out of the phone and is inserted into the skin, the insulin reading is done by the phone and displayed, and the diabetic knows immediately what has to be done (sorry, I am not diabetic and don’t know exactly how it works - but the key is that the technology to do the test diabetics must do daily is embedded in the cellphone).
But, now graduate students have found a way to turn their cellphones into microscopes.
Springwise recently carried the following report on a new concept targeting the 50+ Baby Boomers, who don’t want to accept they are getting old.
Brain Gymns for Boomers
Our brains resemble our muscles in one key respect: don’t exercise them, and they’re likely to lose strength. Conversely, many experts now believe that brains stimulated in a healthy manner can better resist debilitating mental conditions such as Alzheimer’s. Which begs the question: how to keep brains in top shape?
The solution offered by vibrantBrains, a San Francisco start-up, is to create a workout centre for the brain, patterned after a health club. Instead of exercising muscle groups via a series of circuit-training machines, vibrantBrains members hone their mental skills using a variety of computer software programs and other tools, for a monthly membership fee of USD 60. vibrantBrain’s health-club-for-the-mind approach should appeal to the millions of baby boomers who’ve spent their adult lives regularly visiting gyms. As they approach retirement age, they’ll want to maintain their mental agility, too, as attested by sales of Nintendo’s Brain Age, which sold 10 million copies, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.
No doubt we’ll see plenty of additional products and services aimed at enhancing baby boomers’ brain power, joining a long list of companies already selling everything from vitamins to training seminars. Still, vibrantBrain’s model is unique. And from a business standpoint, it has a couple of profit-enhancing advantages over the traditional gyms that it’s based on. Space requirements are minimal compared to health clubs, and entrepreneurs won’t have to lease or buy an expensive array of exercise machines.
If the mental health club idea catches on, the real competition eventually may come from traditional health clubs, which could add brain-exercise routines as easily as they’ve added yoga and martial arts instruction. However, even if that happens, there should be plenty of opportunities for start-ups to differentiate themselves—from rehabilitative clinics for the elderly to centers focused on mental and physical exercises for kids.
Website: www.vibrantbrains.com
The Adecco Institute does ongoing studies into the Future of Work. Last week, they released the following study (see the Executive summary below).
Study: Talent Management to become key differentiator for companies competing in global marketplace
Globalization boosts demand for skilled labor - growing skills shortages require new role of HR to succeed in competition for qualified workforce.
Finding talent, developing talent and keeping talent will be the new role of Human Resources (HR) management in the future. This “talent management” - the assessment and long-term planning of a company’s workforce needs - rather than the traditional filling of vacancies, will become a key differentiator for companies competing in the global marketplace.”This new role of HR management comes as a consequence of three trends converging: Globalization, demographic change and skills shortages”, says Donna Murphy, Managing Director of the Adecco Institute, referring to the result of a study based on interviews with 5,000 HR professionals. Globalization in developed countries increases the demand for skilled and highly qualified labor, while the demand for unskilled work shrinks.
Continue reading ‘Talent management as a competitive differentiator’
This was sent to me by email yesterday:
In the same way that freelancers are flocking to shared working spaces, stay-at-home moms are happy to find a third space that accommodates both them and their offspring. In London, private members clubs like Maggie & Rose and Cupcake Mom, offer mothers a place to convene and relax, where they’re welcome to come and go as they please, 7 days a week.
Maggie & Rose, based in Kensington, features several play areas and offers children’s lessons in art, cooking, dance and more, as well as a weekend movie club and birthday party services. Parents are catered to with a comfortable and quiet café (with wifi access, of course), as well as seminars and access to a family advisory service: “well researched info on nannies, tutors, schools, holidays, etc.” Memberships are priced at GBP 500 per year.
Set to open in Wandsworth next month, Cupcake also aims to provide a grown-up but child-friendly environment. Its focus, however, is mainly on pregnant women and new mothers. In addition to a crèche and an organic café, Cupcake also offers personal trainers and a spa. The top floor of the club, where the spa is located, is a “baby-free zone” and features treatments tailor-made for pregnant women and new moms, from the “Cupcake in the Oven Massage” to the “Mermaid Wrap.” Cupcake also plans to install a sleep pod for much-needed powernaps, and will offer a concierge service to help busy moms complete their to-do lists. Membership is GBP 149 per month. Founded by Karen Hastings, an American MBA graduate who lives in London, Cupcake is backed by Trapezia Capital, a UK venture fund that solely invests in women-led businesses. Hastings plans to open clubs in affluent areas across the country. We’re pretty sure British moms (and dads) aren’t the only parents who would gladly pay for access to a being space, a community of peers and the opportunity for some pampered me-time. Entrepreneurs across the world: start planning.
Websites: www.maggieandrose.co.uk — www.cupcakemum.com
Contacts: studio@maggieandrose.com — info@cupcakemum.com
The Olympic torch has left Athens, Greece on its traditional torch run around the world until it eventually arrives at the Beijing Olympic stadium during the opening ceremony. Right from the first day, it has been met with something that the Chinese officials did not anticipate: protestors. In an unprecendented move, the torch was actually extinguished in Paris so that it could be loaded onto a bus and rushed away from growing violence amongst the protestors. TV news scenes from London, Paris and San Francisco show police beating protestors, dragging them into prison vans and frog marching them away - none of these are scenes that add to the Olympic brand and mythos.
This is becoming a major news story - a BAD news story. It’s China Inc that’s on the receiving end. But it could be you and your company next. We have been saying for some time now that there is a new generation of young people and global citizens that are going to rise up and become activist customers and ethical consumers. This Olympics needs to be YOUR company’s wake up call that this can happen anytime, anywhere. You have been warned - get your act together, and ensure that all the skeletons in your closet are well sorted out!
I used to receive regular newsletter from the Herman Group. For some reason, I didn’t get it, and then yesterday was sent this newsletter. You sign up for it free of charge at their website.
I always found their stuff to be short, succinct, and to the point. They may not be earth shattering observations, but they are great to use with your teams to get conversation started, or to just remind you of the obvious stuff you often overlook.
So, here is Herman Group’s latest Perspectives & Forecasts:
We are trapped in an era of escalating change. There is no question that we live in turbulent times. Everything is changing around us. The velocity of change is increasing. Trends, most of which we know something about, are interacting with each other to create fascinating challenges . . . and opportunities.
The past is behind us. Let it go. Concentrate on the present, with a strong focus on what the future holds for you. No company will succeed in the future if it depends on what it learned-and how it operated–in the past. The future will be dramatically different, but manageable.
Continue reading ‘Perspectives & Forecasts from the Herman Group’
Here I sit, at another conference without power. Don’t get me wrong - I am not talking about the content. I am at Gary Hamel’s latest thing: “The Future of Management”, a full day session with the innovation guru himself. “Live and in person”, just as the advertising promised! The guy is good, and probably the best academic on the issue of innovation in business. So, the content is great.
But in just a few minutes, my laptop is going to die, because I don’t have a power supply near my table. I came prepared - I have two extension cables, and if there was a power outlet within about 20m of my table, I’d be OK (maybe creating a few health and safety issues, but nevertheless I could finish this blog entry without worrying about my battery). But once again the conference organisers have just not thought about people who don’t use paper. I have been given a deskpad and another pen. I don’t use those things. I want to be able to type notes directly into my laptop. I want to be able to work on my computer. I want power!
This needs to be standard practice at conferences! It is the 21st century, after all. AND, today, it is a conference on innovation! If only….
(Let’s not even talk about the fact that there is no free wifi available here. They are giving us free toilet facilities, free water on every desk, free pens and deskpads, free coffee and tea, but no wifi connectivity!)
Continue reading ‘Conferences with no power’
This is how new markets are made, and how worlds are changed! Today, Tata released their latest car. It was a car that all of their rivals said could not be made. About 5 years ago, Tata announced that were going to build a car that would cost less than 100,000 rupees, or US$ 2,500 (the price of a DVD player in most luxury cars).
Today, they unveiled it in India. See the early news reports here and here.
It is the Tata Nano. And, besides being a 5 door sedan, seating four, with just less than 650CC power, it also has remarkable fuel efficiency (20km/l), top speeds at 100km/h, meets all emissions standards and all safety standards, too. The deluxe model will have aircon. See the Reuters “factbox” for details. At this price, it is bound to be attractive to those who have not been able to enter the car market in the past.
It is no surprise that a car for the people in the “bottom half of the pyramid” should come out of India (see previous post on selling profitably to the world’s poor). For some, it may be a sad truth, but it is true nonetheless: unless companies make money out of supplying goods and services to the world’s poor, they won’t. But Tata shows yet another example of how this can be a win-win for everyone.
With a car like this, Tata will create a new market of car drivers, and are poised to conquer the world. I wish them well!
The explosion and evolution of social networks on the internet is something I have been watching and participating with a keen interest especially Youtube, Facebook and SecondLife. What is great about these social networks is that around the time of the dotcom crash period most commentators said that people would not “socialize” on the web, preferring personal contact. Well I don’t think these commentators predicted the impact that the millennial generation or generation X would have on social networking! History is now proving thesm wrong, Facebook has over 50 million users and is valued at £7.5bn
With results like these imitators are of course following fast. It’s simple economics and anyone familiar with Michael Porters 5 Forces model will know that industries displaying high profits and low barriers to entry will attract competition. One of the new boys on the block is Yuwie an social network who’s proposition is to share with it’s members a percentage of the advertising revenue the company gets. According to founder Korry Rogers “Yuwie users get paid every time they log on, send a message, upload a picture or invite someone to join.” So if you visit pages, you earn money, if you invite friends, you earn money, if your friends login in, you and they earn money…sounds like a no brainer… but is it? Do people really want to earn money out of their social networking and what their friends do…Facebook believes that it’s core members don’t and the opinion of some analysts is that people use social networks to link up with friends and make new friends not to earn money out of these social activities. So will the lure of making a potential £200 or more per month be enough for users to switch from their current social networks? Personally, I like Facebook and funnily enough now feel that I have a “personal investment” and connection with the site so for me it isn’t easy to just switch. However, Yuwie launched in July 2007 and has over 350,000 members and is growing at 50,000 members a month. Seems to me that Yuwie’s proposition is working. Now of course the mighty Facebook could eliminate this threat by matching Yuwie’s offer but this would erode industry profits so they are unlikely to do so for now…But I’m intrigued enough to give Yuwie a try and who knows maybe earn some Yuwie pocket money… let’s call it a social networking experiement, I’m keen to be part of this evolution…
One of our colleagues, Raymond de Villiers, is doing formal post grad work in Future Studies. He is particularly interested in future backward scenarios and alternative histories as methodologies of future planning (Google these terms if you’re interested, or contact me for more info). He got me interested in this stuff, and so my radar is always on for articles on the topic of looking backwards to look forwards.
Here is something I found in a recent edition of The Economist.
A report from The Economist, titled: Within spitting distance, from Nov 20th 2007 edition. Read the full story here (I think a subscription might be required), or see extracts below.
MEDICINE has long been a mysterious art. Some people are more susceptible to disease than others, and the pills and potions that may help one person leave others uncured. But the past few days have seen steps forward in personalised medicine, in which diagnosis and treatments are tailored to each individual’s genetic make-up. Two firms have unveiled products that allow the ordinary punter to get his genome decoded for about $1,000.
One of the issues we are tracking closely at TomorrowToday is the ageing Boomer generation, and the impact they are likely to have on the workplace, on retirement (we prefer to call it retyrement) and society as a whole. Here is a great piece I saw recently in an online mag called S+B (Strategy and Business). Read the original here, or scroll down.
How to Be a Demographic Realist
by Lord Andrew Turnbull
11/08/07To prepare for the implications of aging populations, individuals, organizations, and society as a whole must confront assumptions that are no longer valid.
Across the developed world, the demographic profile is changing. According to United Nations projections, the proportion of the global population over 65 years old will triple between now and 2100, from 7 percent to 21 percent. The population is aging more rapidly in some countries, such as Italy and Japan, and less rapidly in others, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. But in all countries, this demographic shift raises challenging new questions, not just for retirement and how it is to be financed, but also for the world of work — and the transition between the two.
Although most people understand that this change is taking place, they do not realize how large it will be and what its implications are for our working lives, for how we provide in advance for retirement, and for how support and care will be provided and funded in the future.
This past week, ICBC, the world’s most valuable bank (valued at $319 bn) took a 20% stake in Standard Bank, Africa’s largest bank by assets. The deal is worth $ 5.5bn.
This is the largest foreign investment by a Chinese bank anywhere in the world. And it is the the largest ever foreign-direct investment in South Africa. The transaction is the latest example of China’s growing interest in Africa, and also illustrates the expanding web of trade and investment that links together emerging markets and their growing weight in the world’s economy. Other deals are now in the pipeline, with China’s mobile industry looking at African heavyweights, such as MTN.
Where are the American banks and telecomms companies? They seem to be focused on the Middle East - a much higher-value-per-person market. But, the future is likely to belong to those companies that seek the “fortune at the bottom of the pyramid“.
The Economist concluded,
I am sitting watching a documentary series on CNN, by Anderson Cooper and Sanjay Cupta, called “Planet in Peril”. See the related website here.
It starts as a list of climate change issues, from melting ice caps to rising sea levels, disappearing lakes to heating islands and malaria. It’s a great litany of the disaster awaiting us, and spans the globe. It would be tough to argue that we are in midst of a climate change crisis.
The question remains, though - are we causing it? Can we change it? What must we do? These questions are dealt with in the show, too.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN sponsored largest scientific report on climate change ever published, was released earlier this year. This is the group that won this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. Check out their website here. It’s tough to argue with the evidence presented in their reports. But some do, of course, especially those funded by big energy companies that have the most to lose from a global backlash against companies causing climate change.
This is a good documentary. Check it out.
Their website also gives great resources for students.
At least, that’s what my favourite Talk Radio station (Radio 702) said during their half hourly news reports throughout today. As a regular facebook user (see my profile here, and challenge me to Rock, Paper, Scissors here, if you have nerves of steel), I was intrigued. Read the story here (not sure how long their archives last, so I have copied it in full below).
Now the story itself is a fairly newsworthy one - especially at this time of year, when final year High School students are writing final exams, and some are trying to find illegal shortcuts to success. BUT, to headline the piece, and add commentary to it, indicating that this is a Facebook problem is ridiculous. And that’s what the news readers did this morning.
What a load of rubbish!! This is such typical media hype. The type that breeds dangerous attitudes in parents, and really does more harm than good.
The long awaited monster passenger plane, the Airbus A380, is now ready for delivery. In fact, Air Singapore today took delivery of their first plane with much pomp and ceremony. Read about it here at the international airlines news, and read about the financial details at Forbes.com.
Some people have said:
In fact, these things were all said of the Boeing 747 when it was introduced to the market in 1970. Some people are saying very similar things of the A380 today. They have obviously not looked at the past and learnt from it. That’s a problem everywhere today, isn’t it?
I think the following report was originally from The Economist, 23 August 2007 edition:
AT FIRST glance, the annual survey of the communications market by Ofcom, Britain’s telecoms regulator, makes comforting reading for traditional-media executives looking for their future customers. Not only are children spending more time consuming media than their older siblings did just a few years ago, but they are also consuming more types. Three-quarters of British 11-year-olds now have their own television set, video-games player and mobile phone.
But this is where the comfort stops, because kids are abandoning old and not-so-old media for the new. Whereas two years ago 59% of those aged 8 to 15 regularly watched videos, only 38% do now. Two years ago 61% regularly played video games compared with 53% today. Most are abandoning stand-alone media, such as DVDs, and turning instead to media such as the internet and in particular social-networking websites. The trend seems to accelerate as children move into their teenage years. Nearly two-thirds of children between the ages of 12 and 15 use the internet, compared with 41% of those aged 8 to 11.
Continue reading ‘British kids showing what the new new things will be’
Earlier this month, researchers at a medical conference on respiratory diseases in Stockholm, reported that MP3 players with built in microphones are better than traditional stethoscopes.
In addition to picking up many respiratory noises better than the stethoscope, they have the added advantage of being able to record the sounds they’re listening to. These digital sound files can then be scrutinised and sent to others for a second opinion, as well as stored for later reference or comparison.
If this is accepted by the medical fraternity, it won’t be long before computer programmes are written to do the analysis of the breathing sounds automatically (similar to how blood tests are now done by machine, and not by lab coated technicians peering into microscopes). This is one step closer to complete home diagnosis, and just another reason why doctors need to understand (like everyone else in every other industry) that these days your value lies less and less in what you sell (or what you do), and more and more in who you are, the connections you make, and how you do what you do.
ibuyeco, a new eco-friendly car insurance scheme that offsets 100% of customers’ CO2 emissions for the duration of their policy, was launched in the UK at the end of April 2007. The company has just started a strong above the line advertising, including television and other national media.
Created by the Budget Group, one of the UK’s leading insurance intermediaries, ibuyeco is one of the first car insurance products to offset 100% of a car’s carbon emissions. Customers pay an additional amount to their premiums. Payments are calculated on the type of vehicle and the estimated mileage, details provided by customers. Using this method, the typical family car travelling a mileage of between 10,000 and 12,000 would require an offset fee of roughly £20, for example. ibuyeco buy carbon credits through The Carbon Neutral Company who in return puts the money towards projects that reduce carbon emissions. These projects fall into different categories including: increased energy efficiency, forestry projects and renewable energy, and are based in both the UK and overseas.
The launch of ibuyeco is the result of a social trend that TomorrowToday has been researching for sometime and which we are calling the “rise of the ethical consumer�.
In November 2006 Barclays announced the first carbon neutral debit card and we’re expecting a large number of companies to follow ibuyeco and Barclays. The important issue though is, are these companies jumping onto the global warming marketing bandwagon or does carbon reduction form part of the company’s values and long term strategy? Another question is why did Budget need to launch a new company and why doesn’t it position the Budget brand as an ethical brand? Hiding behind a new brand for marketing reasons will not pay dividends unless the company itself changes.
When it comes to targeting the “ethical consumer�, made largely out of Generation Y, companies had best practice what they preach. If they don’t, this generation who is highly connected via the web will spread the word and ruthlessly weed out the pretenders.
Companies need to do more than launch new products and advertising campaigns professing to support initiatives that reduce global warming. Companies need to be taking steps towards reducing their own carbon emissions and communicating their efforts, in carbon friendly ways! Carbon reductions need to be part of the company’s day-to-day strategies and way of work. It has to become integrated into the company’s culture and demonstrated in a number of ways, from the way they employ recruits to how they run their meetings and sell their products. There is no point a company asking consumers to buy its product so that they, the consumer can contribute to carbon emissions, when the company itself is contributing to carbon emissions by making clients fill out massive application forms and accept loads of marketing mailings.
Our advice to companies thinking about targeting customers using carbon reduction schemes, is to first integrate carbon reductions into the fabric of their company’s culture before they launch new products. The new ethical consumer will buy from your company because of who you are (your company’s values) and not because of what you sell.
This is Part II of a two part entry. Find the first entry here. I was sent this article recently. It seems to have a few Internet sources, but most reliably comes from the Workforce magazine/website (Subscribe ).
From e-mail to health care, and from artificial intelligence to the end of HR as we know it, here are forecasts of how different the world of workforce management will be 10 years from now.
Workforce-management decisions aren’t made with crystal balls. What they do demand is a clear sense of the landscape on the far horizon. As a human resources executive, you probably know what health care will cost your company next year.
But you’re far less certain whether or not legions of workers will be full-time telecommuters five years from now, or if defined benefits will even exist in 2013. Fortunately, there are forward-thinkers and trend-spotters out there who make it their business to suss out the future for us. Our visionaries don’t always agree with each other, as you’ll see. Still, their predictions of what factors will alter the world of workforce management are provocative, and may serve to inform and intrigue all of us who manage people.
Continue reading ‘25 Trends That Will Change the Way You Do Business, Part II’
I was sent this article recently. It seems to have a few Internet sources, but most reliably comes from the Workforce magazine/website (Subscribe ). Its a long entry, so I have split it into two parts. The second part can be found here.
From e-mail to health care, and from artificial intelligence to the end of HR as we know it, here are forecasts of how different the world of workforce management will be 10 years from now.
Workforce-management decisions aren’t made with crystal balls. What they do demand is a clear sense of the landscape on the far horizon. As a human resources executive, you probably know what health care will cost your company next year.
But you’re far less certain whether or not legions of workers will be full-time telecommuters five years from now, or if defined benefits will even exist in 2013. Fortunately, there are forward-thinkers and trend-spotters out there who make it their business to suss out the future for us. Our visionaries don’t always agree with each other, as you’ll see. Still, their predictions of what factors will alter the world of workforce management are provocative, and may serve to inform and intrigue all of us who manage people.
Continue reading ‘25 Trends That Will Change the Way You Do Business, Part I’
Sky News reported on Tuesday that the gap between rich and poor in the UK has reached its highest level for more than 40 years.
There has been a rise in the number of households living below the poverty line over the past 15 years. At the same time, households in already wealthy areas have tended to become disproportionately wealthier, with many rich people now living in areas segregated from the rest of society. The widening gap between rich and poor had led to a fall in the number of average households, which were classed as being neither rich nor poor.
History tells us that when the wealth gap widens sufficiently, a correction occurs. This NEVER favours the rich. More and more super rich people around the world realise that their wealth has responsibilities built in - there is a growing philanthrophic movement growing. It must grow even more if we are to secure the future.
