Archive for the 'Trends - Future Trends' Category

Face the facts… about ageing workforces

One of the issues we are tracking closely at TomorrowToday is the ageing Boomer generation, and the impact they are likely to have on the workplace, on retirement (we prefer to call it retyrement) and society as a whole. Here is a great piece I saw recently in an online mag called S+B (Strategy and Business). Read the original here, or scroll down.

How to Be a Demographic Realist
by Lord Andrew Turnbull
 
11/08/07

To prepare for the implications of aging populations, individuals, organizations, and society as a whole must confront assumptions that are no longer valid.

Across the developed world, the demographic profile is changing. According to United Nations projections, the proportion of the global population over 65 years old will triple between now and 2100, from 7 percent to 21 percent. The population is aging more rapidly in some countries, such as Italy and Japan, and less rapidly in others, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. But in all countries, this demographic shift raises challenging new questions, not just for retirement and how it is to be financed, but also for the world of work — and the transition between the two.

Although most people understand that this change is taking place, they do not realize how large it will be and what its implications are for our working lives, for how we provide in advance for retirement, and for how support and care will be provided and funded in the future.

Continue reading ‘Face the facts… about ageing workforces’

The Lion and the Dragon

This past week, ICBC, the world’s most valuable bank (valued at $319 bn) took a 20% stake in Standard Bank, Africa’s largest bank by assets. The deal is worth $ 5.5bn.

This is the largest foreign investment by a Chinese bank anywhere in the world. And it is the the largest ever foreign-direct investment in South Africa. The transaction is the latest example of China’s growing interest in Africa, and also illustrates the expanding web of trade and investment that links together emerging markets and their growing weight in the world’s economy. Other deals are now in the pipeline, with China’s mobile industry looking at African heavyweights, such as MTN.

Where are the American banks and telecomms companies? They seem to be focused on the Middle East - a much higher-value-per-person market. But, the future is likely to belong to those companies that seek the “fortune at the bottom of the pyramid“.

The Economist concluded,

Continue reading ‘The Lion and the Dragon’

Planet in Peril on CNN

I am sitting watching a documentary series on CNN, by Anderson Cooper and Sanjay Cupta, called “Planet in Peril”. See the related website here.

It starts as a list of climate change issues, from melting ice caps to rising sea levels, disappearing lakes to heating islands and malaria. It’s a great litany of the disaster awaiting us, and spans the globe. It would be tough to argue that we are in midst of a climate change crisis.

The question remains, though - are we causing it? Can we change it? What must we do? These questions are dealt with in the show, too.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN sponsored largest scientific report on climate change ever published, was released earlier this year. This is the group that won this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. Check out their website here. It’s tough to argue with the evidence presented in their reports. But some do, of course, especially those funded by big energy companies that have the most to lose from a global backlash against companies causing climate change.

This is a good documentary. Check it out.

Their website also gives great resources for students.

“There’s a problem with Facebook”

FacebookAt least, that’s what my favourite Talk Radio station (Radio 702) said during their half hourly news reports throughout today. As a regular facebook user (see my profile here, and challenge me to Rock, Paper, Scissors here, if you have nerves of steel), I was intrigued. Read the story here (not sure how long their archives last, so I have copied it in full below).

Now the story itself is a fairly newsworthy one - especially at this time of year, when final year High School students are writing final exams, and some are trying to find illegal shortcuts to success. BUT, to headline the piece, and add commentary to it, indicating that this is a Facebook problem is ridiculous. And that’s what the news readers did this morning.

What a load of rubbish!! This is such typical media hype. The type that breeds dangerous attitudes in parents, and really does more harm than good.

Continue reading ‘“There’s a problem with Facebook”’

The Airbus A380 is delivered - but will it deliver?

Singapore airlines Airbus A380The long awaited monster passenger plane, the Airbus A380, is now ready for delivery. In fact, Air Singapore today took delivery of their first plane with much pomp and ceremony. Read about it here at the international airlines news, and read about the financial details at Forbes.com.

Some people have said:

  • The plane is too late - the market has moved on, and there won’t be enough orders to pay for it.
  • Given the delays and increases in development costs, they need to sell almost double the estimated number of planes to turn a profit.
  • Its unlikely the market will be able to absorb the additional planes they need to sell.
  • The plane will become obsolete before they sell 400 units.
  • The plane is too big - no-one wants to fly with that many people.

In fact, these things were all said of the Boeing 747 when it was introduced to the market in 1970. Some people are saying very similar things of the A380 today. They have obviously not looked at the past and learnt from it. That’s a problem everywhere today, isn’t it?

British kids showing what the new new things will be

I think the following report was originally from The Economist, 23 August 2007 edition:

AT FIRST glance, the annual survey of the communications market by Ofcom, Britain’s telecoms regulator, makes comforting reading for traditional-media executives looking for their future customers. Not only are children spending more time consuming media than their older siblings did just a few years ago, but they are also consuming more types. Three-quarters of British 11-year-olds now have their own television set, video-games player and mobile phone.

But this is where the comfort stops, because kids are abandoning old and not-so-old media for the new. Whereas two years ago 59% of those aged 8 to 15 regularly watched videos, only 38% do now. Two years ago 61% regularly played video games compared with 53% today. Most are abandoning stand-alone media, such as DVDs, and turning instead to media such as the internet and in particular social-networking websites. The trend seems to accelerate as children move into their teenage years. Nearly two-thirds of children between the ages of 12 and 15 use the internet, compared with 41% of those aged 8 to 11.

Continue reading ‘British kids showing what the new new things will be’

MP3 stethoscopes

Earlier this month, researchers at a medical conference on respiratory diseases in Stockholm, reported that MP3 players with built in microphones are better than traditional stethoscopes.

In addition to picking up many respiratory noises better than the stethoscope, they have the added advantage of being able to record the sounds they’re listening to. These digital sound files can then be scrutinised and sent to others for a second opinion, as well as stored for later reference or comparison.

If this is accepted by the medical fraternity, it won’t be long before computer programmes are written to do the analysis of the breathing sounds automatically (similar to how blood tests are now done by machine, and not by lab coated technicians peering into microscopes). This is one step closer to complete home diagnosis, and just another reason why doctors need to understand (like everyone else in every other industry) that these days your value lies less and less in what you sell (or what you do), and more and more in who you are, the connections you make, and how you do what you do.

CO2 Neutral products are becoming “fashionable” but are new product launches enough to target the “ethical consumer”?

ibuyeco, a new eco-friendly car insurance scheme that offsets 100% of customers’ CO2 emissions for the duration of their policy, was launched in the UK at the end of April 2007. The company has just started a strong above the line advertising, including television and other national media.

Created by the Budget Group, one of the UK’s leading insurance intermediaries, ibuyeco is one of the first car insurance products to offset 100% of a car’s carbon emissions. Customers pay an additional amount to their premiums. Payments are calculated on the type of vehicle and the estimated mileage, details provided by customers. Using this method, the typical family car travelling a mileage of between 10,000 and 12,000 would require an offset fee of roughly £20, for example. ibuyeco buy carbon credits through The Carbon Neutral Company who in return puts the money towards projects that reduce carbon emissions. These projects fall into different categories including: increased energy efficiency, forestry projects and renewable energy, and are based in both the UK and overseas.

The launch of ibuyeco is the result of a social trend that TomorrowToday has been researching for sometime and which we are calling the “rise of the ethical consumer”.

In November 2006 Barclays announced the first carbon neutral debit card and we’re expecting a large number of companies to follow ibuyeco and Barclays. The important issue though is, are these companies jumping onto the global warming marketing bandwagon or does carbon reduction form part of the company’s values and long term strategy? Another question is why did Budget need to launch a new company and why doesn’t it position the Budget brand as an ethical brand? Hiding behind a new brand for marketing reasons will not pay dividends unless the company itself changes.

When it comes to targeting the “ethical consumer”, made largely out of Generation Y, companies had best practice what they preach. If they don’t, this generation who is highly connected via the web will spread the word and ruthlessly weed out the pretenders.

Companies need to do more than launch new products and advertising campaigns professing to support initiatives that reduce global warming. Companies need to be taking steps towards reducing their own carbon emissions and communicating their efforts, in carbon friendly ways! Carbon reductions need to be part of the company’s day-to-day strategies and way of work. It has to become integrated into the company’s culture and demonstrated in a number of ways, from the way they employ recruits to how they run their meetings and sell their products. There is no point a company asking consumers to buy its product so that they, the consumer can contribute to carbon emissions, when the company itself is contributing to carbon emissions by making clients fill out massive application forms and accept loads of marketing mailings.

Our advice to companies thinking about targeting customers using carbon reduction schemes, is to first integrate carbon reductions into the fabric of their company’s culture before they launch new products. The new ethical consumer will buy from your company because of who you are (your company’s values) and not because of what you sell.

25 Trends That Will Change the Way You Do Business, Part II

This is Part II of a two part entry. Find the first entry here. I was sent this article recently. It seems to have a few Internet sources, but most reliably comes from the Workforce magazine/website (Subscribe ).

From e-mail to health care, and from artificial intelligence to the end of HR as we know it, here are forecasts of how different the world of workforce management will be 10 years from now.

Workforce-management decisions aren’t made with crystal balls. What they do demand is a clear sense of the landscape on the far horizon. As a human resources executive, you probably know what health care will cost your company next year.

But you’re far less certain whether or not legions of workers will be full-time telecommuters five years from now, or if defined benefits will even exist in 2013. Fortunately, there are forward-thinkers and trend-spotters out there who make it their business to suss out the future for us. Our visionaries don’t always agree with each other, as you’ll see. Still, their predictions of what factors will alter the world of workforce management are provocative, and may serve to inform and intrigue all of us who manage people.

Continue reading ‘25 Trends That Will Change the Way You Do Business, Part II’

25 Trends That Will Change the Way You Do Business, Part I

I was sent this article recently. It seems to have a few Internet sources, but most reliably comes from the Workforce magazine/website (Subscribe ). Its a long entry, so I have split it into two parts. The second part can be found here.

From e-mail to health care, and from artificial intelligence to the end of HR as we know it, here are forecasts of how different the world of workforce management will be 10 years from now.

Workforce-management decisions aren’t made with crystal balls. What they do demand is a clear sense of the landscape on the far horizon. As a human resources executive, you probably know what health care will cost your company next year.

But you’re far less certain whether or not legions of workers will be full-time telecommuters five years from now, or if defined benefits will even exist in 2013. Fortunately, there are forward-thinkers and trend-spotters out there who make it their business to suss out the future for us. Our visionaries don’t always agree with each other, as you’ll see. Still, their predictions of what factors will alter the world of workforce management are provocative, and may serve to inform and intrigue all of us who manage people.

Continue reading ‘25 Trends That Will Change the Way You Do Business, Part I’

Gap Between Rich And Poor Widens in the UK

Sky News reported on Tuesday that the gap between rich and poor in the UK has reached its highest level for more than 40 years.

Gap between rich and poorThere has been a rise in the number of households living below the poverty line over the past 15 years. At the same time, households in already wealthy areas have tended to become disproportionately wealthier, with many rich people now living in areas segregated from the rest of society. The widening gap between rich and poor had led to a fall in the number of average households, which were classed as being neither rich nor poor.

History tells us that when the wealth gap widens sufficiently, a correction occurs. This NEVER favours the rich. More and more super rich people around the world realise that their wealth has responsibilities built in - there is a growing philanthrophic movement growing. It must grow even more if we are to secure the future.

Prince for Free

This Sunday, the Mail on Sunday newspaper in England will hand out free copies of Prince’s (The artist previously known as Symbol, previously known as Prince, etc) new album, Planet Earth. The album was self produced by Prince, and the Mail on Sunday hopes to sell in excess of 2.5 million copies of their newspaper on Sunday - the paper is sold for less than £ 1.50. As far as I can tell, they are not increasing the cover price for this week’s edition - this is a genuine free CD.

Prince stated that he wanted to send a message to the music industry - and this one is loud and clear. The album is a full album, and will not be carried in shops in the UK (not for now anyway). See the promo poster here.

It isn’t as altruistic as it sounds, and there is some solid economics behind the deal. Prince has been paid £ 500,000 by the Mail on Sunday. To earn that level of revenue in England, he would have had to sell about 5 million albums - and with all due respect the ageing rocker was unlikely to do that in England. So, he is winning. The paper should score from it. Everyone is smiling. Or are they?

Continue reading ‘Prince for Free’

Your Child and the Future: Work gets ready for Gen Y

I found a great article at the Teaching Moments website. It is meant to help parents (I think especially home schoolers) to know what employers will be like when their kids leave school and enter the job market. You can find the original here.

Your Child and the Future
John Bishop

This article will give you some insight on how employers are preparing for the entry of your children into the workplace.

Are Your Managers Ready for Generation Y Employees?

Generation Y or the “Internet Generation” will dramatically change every aspect of your business in the next five years!

Continue reading ‘Your Child and the Future: Work gets ready for Gen Y’

War Games for Business

In the May 31, 2007 edition of The Economist, there was a great article on a topic one of our team, Raymond de Villiers, is doing post graduate studies on: the issue of using gaming techniques to assist business development. The full article is available here (may require subscription).

Continue reading ‘War Games for Business’

The FUTURIST forecasts for the next 25 years

Recently, members of the World Futures Society were asked to submit and vote on the top forecasts for the next 25 years. You can read the resulting summarised report here.

Without any explanation or detail, here is the list in bullet format:

Continue reading ‘The FUTURIST forecasts for the next 25 years’

Crowdsourcing - Getting Your Customers and Staff to develop new innovations for you

Crowdsourcing is a technique that progressive companies are using to translate the enthusiasm of their most highly-engaged customers into valuable marketing, branding, or product-development insight. Dean van Leeuwen, TomorrowToday’s UK and European director, who has an MBA and extensive work experience in marketing, looks at this new trend and provides practical guidelines for customer-led organisations.

Continue reading ‘Crowdsourcing - Getting Your Customers and Staff to develop new innovations for you’

Prisoners of the past

The opening line of the best selling business book of all time is as succinct as it is true: “Good is the enemy of great”. Jim Collins’ 2001 bestseller, “Good to Great” explains how most companies never become great because they are already good. They have become prisoners to their past – not feeling any need to push boundaries, innovate, prepare for the unexpected, stretch themselves or make necessary changes to ensure sustainable success. Dr Graeme Codrington argues that this is a recipe for disaster, that only future-focused leadership - who have the guts to look forward and not back - can avert.

Continue reading ‘Prisoners of the past’

Get your daily Joost

Joost is the new internet TV concept being developed by highly successful entrepreneurs Niklas Zennström and Janus Friis, the founders of Skype which they sold to ebay for $2.6 billion cash!

Joost pronounced ‘juiced’ is an interactive software for distributing TV shows and you will be able to watch whatever you want, whenever you want. Joost has signed up providers like MTV, National Geographic, The Soccer Channel, Warner Brothers Music and IndyCar Series and by the sounds of it FOX TV will soon be a partner.

Joost stands to revolutionise marketing and the way in which we watch TV. Have Niklas and Janus done it again? I have to wonder how much they will sell Joost for, it definitely appears to have all the right ingredients to be a huge success.

There is speculation that the launch is scheduled for 1st May 2007, but as clever marketers Joost is letting the internet community speculate and blogs have been set up to monitor the “countdown!”

Joost itself is not revealing when they will go live, but you can leave your email details with them and become part of their community and be amongst the first to receive the software.

Go to www.joost.com and sign up. You need to get involved in the joost community so that you can get an invite code from a community member. This invite is required before you can download the software – another clever marketing trick…Joost is getting future clients to engage with the brand on a number of different levels. There are hints on how to get an invite!! Sign up and watch out for the launch and get your daily Joost!

Dean van Leeuwen is a TomorrowToday UK partner and expert on talent, innovation and business connectivity

The Pope’s Limbo

It’s official. After 800 years of being Catholic church policy, the theological construct of “limbo” has been abolished (read the International Herald Tribune on this). This was a place were unbaptised babies were said to go, awaiting some kind of final judgement at the end of times. It was “created” over 800 years ago, as a way of dealing with two competing theological factions in the Catholic Church. Last week, after a 3 year theological review, the Pope agreed that it was an error in judgement, and officially “abolished” it as a concept in Catholic dogma.

Good for him!

I suppose the lesson for us all is to ask what long held beliefs we each have that we need to be prepared to give up - no matter how embarrassing or life-changing it might be to do so. You can criticise the Vatican for this change. But you can’t argue with their guts to do something!

What do you need to change? And do you have the guts to do so?

Getting and Keeping Talent

“The ‘surplus society’ has a surplus of similar companies, employing similar people, with similar educational backgrounds, coming up with similar ideas, producing similar things, with similar prices and similar quality.� Funky Business, Kjell Nordström and Jonas Ridderstråle

The Funky Business guys have a point. In most industries, the world has been “flattened” and its very difficult to differentiae competitors these days. We’re selling similar products and services, to the same clients, at about the same price, delivering through similar channels, using similar techniques to advertise in the same media, and making similar promises. We even swap staff every few years. If that’s not entirely true in your industry, it probably will be soon. In an environment like this, competitive advantage is found less and less in what you sell, and more and more in who you are and how you sell. And if “who you are is who you hire”, then the ability to attract and retain the most talented people in your industry, and get more out of them than your competitors could, are core strategic competencies to be developed and maintained.

Our problem is, that at just the time this “war for talent” started, a new generation of young people started entering the workplace, bringing with them new values, different expectations and a fresh outlook on work and the workplace. The shift in the values of these young people is necessitating a shift in workplace culture and environments. Those companies wishing to attract the attention of these young stars must take these shifts seriously.

In particular, today’s young talent do not accept the old contract of employment. That old contract included terms such as “paying your duesâ€? and “the system will provideâ€?. They know that the system will not provide for them. The old contract swapped loyalty for security. In essence, the employee would come into an organisation and sell its products and services to its clients at its price through its channels, using its systems and processes. In exchange for the employee becoming that unmarketable (think about it - the more you learn about one company’s systems and processes, the more unmarketable you become), the employee asked for one thing in return: Security. It was a simple contract, and it worked! But how many companies can offer security these days?

Not one!

But that does not concern today’s young workers. They are not looking for security, because they know that it is an illusion, even if it is offered. So, if your company cannot offer security, why is it still asking for loyalty? That’s what today’s young people want to know. If you can’t give a long-term commitment, why are you asking for one?
Continue reading ‘Getting and Keeping Talent’

So just how important is the planet?

It doesn’t matter what your stand is on the planet and our relationship with it, there’s no denying that 2006/7 has seen a dramatic shift in people’s exposure and interest in what we’re doing to this planet called Earth. The New York Times featured this article about a document recently released by United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Generationally it’s an interesting debate. My very general observation is that older generations are less interested and more apathetic around climate change, our role in it, and our ability to change the current approach (or lack of) by the species called ‘us’. It’s a hot topic as you observe younger people’s approach to the planet. We’re headed for some very interesting times within society and business, as a fresh world view begins to assert its ability to influence the status quo.

What you do and don’t do to the planet will determine both your stage and your audience.

Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines….. (hydrogen, electric, hybrid - whatever)

Role of the Media

I heard a comment on the Daily Show a while back (I think they were reviewing ‘Time Magazine’s Person of the Year’). Something about main-stream media turning its back on its responsibility and hence the rise of citizen media in the form of blogs and podcasts, etc.

Here’s the Onion’s version of such a comment, based on the New York Time’s ‘Most e-mailed list‘. It’s a list of which articles are most e-mailed by readers.

The dog certainly has a larger grip on it’s tail. One wonders where this swing is going to turn again?

Why have a “Take your kids to work day”?

This is a really nice piece from the Christian Science Monitor, from the April 27, 2006 edition.

Gen Y’s opt-out vision
By Courtney E. Martin
BROOKLYN, N.Y. – Take Our Daughters and Sons to Work Day (April 27) would be a great idea if the contemporary workplace was actually a place where we wanted our daughters and sons to end up. Unfortunately, for the second-wave feminists who created it, and fortunately, for the third-wave feminists who aren’t having it, this “special day” is about as relevant as a traditional Southern coming out party.

The “opt-out revolution,” first coined by Lisa Belkin in her New York Times Magazine story in October 2003, has since been discussed by feminists and antifeminists alike in countless news features and opinion pieces. The trend of young women rejecting the traditional workforce is, indeed, real. But this trend isn’t limited to young women. What social commentators are failing to point out is that both young men and women are not just opting out, we’re not even buying in.

Read the rest of the article.

Manager, offshore thyself

A great article in the latest Economist magazine looks at the issue of corporate locations, and where you place your key executives. The subtitle asks: “Does the location of a company’s headquarters matter any more?” Read the article, from the 8 March 2007 editiion, here (subscription may be required).

Basically, the answer is that, “Yes” it does matter. Certain executive positions are being offshored, and big companies, like IBM and Nokia are leading the way in this trend.

Continue reading ‘Manager, offshore thyself’

Religion and marketing

One of the major trends we have been tracking for some time is the rise in the influence of religious beliefs as a driver of people’s values and behaviour. A MarketingWeb article on the issue (extracted from Nilewide) puts it succinctly and clearly. This is an issue marketers need to take seriously.

Read this interesting insight below, or at MarketingWeb here.
Continue reading ‘Religion and marketing’