Small, rich and stable countries tend to be the most globalised, at least according to an index of 72 countries by A.T. Kearney, a consultancy, and Foreign Policy magazine - to see a graphic of the 2005 index, click MORE below, or follow this link.
Their index uses 12 measures which cover economic integration, personal contact, political engagement and technological connectivity. As The Economist said, a little disparagingly, actually, “The index may be most useful for starting debates.” But, for what it what’s check it out below…
Continue reading ‘Small is beautiful - and connected’
This past week, ICBC, the world’s most valuable bank (valued at $319 bn) took a 20% stake in Standard Bank, Africa’s largest bank by assets. The deal is worth $ 5.5bn.
This is the largest foreign investment by a Chinese bank anywhere in the world. And it is the the largest ever foreign-direct investment in South Africa. The transaction is the latest example of China’s growing interest in Africa, and also illustrates the expanding web of trade and investment that links together emerging markets and their growing weight in the world’s economy. Other deals are now in the pipeline, with China’s mobile industry looking at African heavyweights, such as MTN.
Where are the American banks and telecomms companies? They seem to be focused on the Middle East - a much higher-value-per-person market. But, the future is likely to belong to those companies that seek the “fortune at the bottom of the pyramid“.
The Economist concluded,
Continue reading ‘The Lion and the Dragon’
The long awaited monster passenger plane, the Airbus A380, is now ready for delivery. In fact, Air Singapore today took delivery of their first plane with much pomp and ceremony. Read about it here at the international airlines news, and read about the financial details at Forbes.com.
Some people have said:
- The plane is too late - the market has moved on, and there won’t be enough orders to pay for it.
- Given the delays and increases in development costs, they need to sell almost double the estimated number of planes to turn a profit.
- Its unlikely the market will be able to absorb the additional planes they need to sell.
- The plane will become obsolete before they sell 400 units.
- The plane is too big - no-one wants to fly with that many people.
In fact, these things were all said of the Boeing 747 when it was introduced to the market in 1970. Some people are saying very similar things of the A380 today. They have obviously not looked at the past and learnt from it. That’s a problem everywhere today, isn’t it?
A frequently asked question when we present “Mind the Gap” - a presentation about different generations - is whether these generations can be found all around the world. People battle to believe that the elegant simplicity of the generations model applies in different countries and across multiple cultures.
Of course, the generational model is not applicable to every single individual everywhere (which model is?), but it IS exceptionally robust. And more and more research around the world is showing this to be true. The latest piece of research I picked up comes from one of the students my colleague Keith had contact with at the Asia Pacific Leadership Programme he teaches at every year at the University of Hawaii (read more about this amazing program at Wikipedia).
The title is: Shinsedae: Conservative Attitudes of a ‘New Generation’ in South Korea and the Impact on the Korean Presidential Election, By Park Sun-Young - click here to read it in full.
Continue reading ‘Shinsedae - a new generation in Korea’
The Economist recently reflected on the growing use of cellphones in China, and how this is impacting a generation of young people to think about - and get a taste for - democracy. Here is an extract of the article. The original can be found here (subscription required).
Mobilised by mobile
Jun 21st 2007 | BEIJING AND XIAMEN
From The Economist print edition
Organised by text messages and internet chats, China’s middle classes are daring to protest, and giving the government a fright
INFORMATION technology in China is once again making political waves. In the tropical seaport of Xiamen citizens still talk excitedly about how an anonymous text message on their mobile phones last month prompted them to join one of the biggest middle-class protests of recent years. And in Beijing politicians are scrambling to calm an uproar fuelled by an online petition against slave labour in brick kilns.
Chinese officials have had reason to worry before about the rallying power of the internet and mobile phones. Two years ago they helped activists organise protests against Japan in several Chinese cities. But the government, at least initially, sympathised with those protests. By contrast the demonstrations in Xiamen were directed at officialdom, and the slave-labour scandal embarrasses the government. It involves allegations that officials ignored kiln-owners’ use of abducted boys to perform dangerous work. This has triggered a heated online debate about the political flaws that allowed such horrors to happen.
Continue reading ‘Democracy, cellphones and China’
Sky News reported on Tuesday that the gap between rich and poor in the UK has reached its highest level for more than 40 years.
There has been a rise in the number of households living below the poverty line over the past 15 years. At the same time, households in already wealthy areas have tended to become disproportionately wealthier, with many rich people now living in areas segregated from the rest of society. The widening gap between rich and poor had led to a fall in the number of average households, which were classed as being neither rich nor poor.
History tells us that when the wealth gap widens sufficiently, a correction occurs. This NEVER favours the rich. More and more super rich people around the world realise that their wealth has responsibilities built in - there is a growing philanthrophic movement growing. It must grow even more if we are to secure the future.
For those who travel regularly to different cultures, you know the nightmare of arriving in a new country and realising that you don’t know some important local customs. I’m not talking about the customs officials at the airport, but rather issues like do you tip the taxi driver, and if so, how much. Do you tip the porter at the hotel, or the waitress at the restuarant?
Then, you probably also know the frenzy of trying to work out the power adaptors and trying to get your laptop juiced up (its battery-life died somewhere over the Indian Ocean, right in the middle of an important email).
OK, so maybe you don’t care, but I have just found two great websites, and need a place to put them so I can remember them:
While doing the research for the above sites, I came across a great one that seems to list everything in one place: http://www.kropla.com/.
A nice innovation is being experimented with by Air France, JAL, Singapore and Virgin airlines. They will now be offering in-flight language tutorials on selected routes, helping passengers to learn a few key words and phrases of the language of the country of their destination. This is based on an interactive audiovisual language program developed by Berlitz, the company that supplies many in-flight entertainment screens. The system currently supports 23 languages.
This is an example of a massive trend - consumers are demonstrating a value shift from passive consumption to mastering skills. The smartest companies are offering their customers the opportunity to add to their skill set, not just consume a service or product.
I am doing some work in Uganda at the moment. Last night, I watched the “African Idols” TV show. Its down to the last five, and these young people really let it rip. (A few weeks ago, flipping through channels back in South Africa, I saw enough of the preliminary rounds to be cured of the myth that “all Africans can sing” - a fair number of them were awful). But, there is something that concerns me, and I hope I can express it properly.
The problem occurs to me at various levels, but its about identity. especially African identity. Here are the symptoms:
Continue reading ‘On Identity’
This report from The Economist, 15 March 2007 (may need subscription):
Of slips and video clips
Candidates for 2008 are racing to master a new medium
DURING the presidential campaign of 1800, partisans harnessed high-speed technology to spread their message. Like today, that message was often scurrilous. Unlike today, the technology they harnessed needed real harnesses. When Thomas Jefferson’s enemies wanted to distribute pamphlets accusing him of atheism and adultery, or to spread a premature report of his death, they used horses, which could outrun even the most rapid rebuttal.
Continue reading ‘Campaigning on the Internet’
Why is it that Americans always seem to have an answer? Now, before I progress let me make it clear that I have nothing against Americans per se, and in fact know many who could not be put in the category I am about to articulate. NonethelessI have noticed an alarming trend. There have been several experiences over many years that have contributed to me arriving at this opinion. But let me share a fresh experience that merely underscores the point being made.
Both these fresh observations come out of attending two Leadership conferences in Shanghai. Both involve watching and listening to the visiting American leadership Gurus that have come here (over the past two years) to share their insights. Both have come with impressive credentials and big reputations. Both have vast experience and certainly have good points worthy of attention. Both are best selling authors. Both are articulate and confident. Both offered solutions or best practices that were about their way - aka the American way of doing things. And I am sure that both would deny this and point to a global effectiveness within their sphere of influence.
And here is my issue: both seem not to listen. I found myself baulking at their quick fire, ready-made and slick answers. No hesitation, no clarifying question… just the answer wrapped, packed, sealed and delivered. They seemed unable to hear the question, to ask the question (why would you if you already have the answer?) much less pause in the space that the question invites. Both seem strangers to the gift that the question offers that space where you get to hear others, where you get to learn of a better way. For, there always is a better way. Neither, in both their formal and, as far as I could determine, their informal manner, explored the gift of the question.
During one tea break a group of us were pondering some of the more paradoxical points of coaching when the one Guru joined the group. Naturally his opinion was sought. Naturally he gave an answer offering a sweeping global formula (his technique). Naturally he didn’t hear the (small) questioning voice that challenged his opinion once he had had finished. And so the gift of the pause was lost. After sharing his wisdom (without so much as asking a question of those assembled) he moved on, no doubt to impart his wisdom elsewhere. The irony for me was that he was a coach (with some impressive CEOs as clients I might add) and the focus of his keynote address was about the virtue of listening and asking questions. And here he was in our tea group where he didn’t do either - where he didn’t join the conversation but rather took it ransom. Something that was to be repeated around the dinner table that same evening.
Continue reading ‘Encountering the Stars (and Stripes): The Problem with the Guru Mentality a personal experience.’
A great article in the latest Economist magazine looks at the issue of corporate locations, and where you place your key executives. The subtitle asks: “Does the location of a company’s headquarters matter any more?” Read the article, from the 8 March 2007 editiion, here (subscription may be required).
Basically, the answer is that, “Yes” it does matter. Certain executive positions are being offshored, and big companies, like IBM and Nokia are leading the way in this trend.
Continue reading ‘Manager, offshore thyself’
Every year at about this time, Warren Buffett, the world’s most legendary (and richest) investor, makes his annual letter to shareholders public. As always, the 2007 letter is a good read (its labelled “2006″ because its a report about last year). Now that he knows how many people read the letter (and without any competition it is the most read page of Annual Financial Statements anywhere in the world), his letters have taken on a slightly more self-aware tone (read the full archives from 1977 here).
As always, this year, his thoughts range quite widely. A few parts caught my attention:
Continue reading ‘Buffett on Bosses’
Every year, Fast Company releases a list of companies doing good things for the planet. This year, they extend the list to companies, organisations and individuals. The list is an interesting and uplifting one, in a sea of dark news on this issue. See the list here.
Eventually, someone was going to step up and actually start doing something about the state of the world. You might have thought it would be a president–a senator, maybe–who would stand, point out at the future, and raise the alarm. Instead, it is business, and more specifically a certain strain of imaginative, entrepreneurial business, that has found the upside in addressing global malfunction. Whether old-line, established companies or tiny startups, they’re tweaking old technologies and inventing startling new ones, tackling everything from pandemics to ancient scourges like hunger. Are they doing all this because they want to save the world, or because they can turn a profit? Yes. And not a moment too soon.
Continue reading ‘Fast Company’s “Fast 50″ - 50 profit-driven solutions for fixing the planet’
How rich are you? How do you stack up with the other 6 billion inhabitants of the planet?
Now, you can find out exactly, and you will be amazed. If you can read this blog entry, then you’re rich. Seriously, you are.
Check it out at: http://www.globalrichlist.com/
Drive a car in any major city of the world, and you’ll be forgiven your evil thoughts. And you’ll wonder how it could be possible that the number of motor cars on the world’s roads could double in the next ten years. But that’s no stretch of the imagination. If you simply extrapolate current trends, that figure should not be too far away from reality.
In my home country, South Africa - a nation of about 20 million adults who are old enough (or young enough) to drive - there have been about 650,000 new car sales a year for the past few years. Half of those are in my home city, Johannesburg - or, to put it simply: a thousand new cars a day on Joburg’s streets, every day for the past 3 years! This demand for cars is a global trend. Yet, Ford managed to rack up the biggest corporate loss in history in the past few weeks.
A great article in the Resilience Report of Booz Allen Hamilton (15 Feb 2007) highlights the three trends driving this car boom - trends that anyone in any emerging market country can see easily: (1) increasing numbers of middle class consumers; (2) an expanding lower end auto market - i.e. a demand for cheaper entry level cars; and (3) increasing pressures on the auto industry, to produce better, cheaper cars.
The report rightly identifies environmental concerns as a huge factor going forward. I’d like to suggest that they missed one further trend: the legacy staffing costs currently being carried by American car manufacturers. Its estimated that Ford and GM both have about $ 1,000 costs per car for pensions and legacy staff costs. They can “easily” shed these debts by declaring bankruptcy. This would be a tragedy for the pensioners, but possibly the only way out of the huge hole American car manufacturers find themselves. The US government has long subsidised and protected US car manufacturers - now the chickens are coming home to roost, and global competition is forcing them to deal with reality.
For the car industry, it truly is “the best of times, and the worst of times”.
I was asked again the other day what the “theme” of this blog is. It can sometimes seem like a collection of rambling musings on the world. Well…
Besides being just that, it is really the place that the network at TomorrowToday.biz put all their musings on the world. This is part of what we do at TomorrowToday - we track societal trends, trying to spot patterns and identify futures and scenarios.
Every now and again, we get glimpses of how major forces combine to shape societies and destinies globally. One such thought hit me today, and it brings together things we say around retiring Boomers, globalisation, governments, investment opportunities, emerging markets, and much more. Its a simple, yet profound thought.
Continue reading ‘Links in a chain: How it all fits together’
South Africa, a young democracy, is experiencing what almost every young democracy has experienced: an increase in crime, and other issues that threaten hard won freedoms. It often takes a tipping point, and an escalation to almost unbearable limits, in these situations, until society is shaken from its sleepiness and starts to fight back. I sense that this is where South Africa now finds itself. There is a feeling that crime, especially violent robbery, has increased dramatically in just the past few months, and I sense a heaviness in people’s hearts. But, is this the reality?
One of my favourite political analysts, JP Landman, has written on the topic. He is retained by BOE, a really future thinking bank, as an analyst and commentator. His thoughts on crime are really worth reading - not just for South Africans, but for everyone. He has some interesting comments on generations, and how countries with lots of young men also have high crime rates… But let me not steal his thunder. Read on.
Continue reading ‘Crime - Where Facts, Politics And Emotions Clash’
Fast Company’s annual list of the hottest jobs, taken from a survey of trend spotters and futurists, is as follows:
- Experience Designer
- Medical Researcher
- Web Designer
- Security Systems Engineer
- Urban Planners
- Viral Marketers and Media Promoters
- Talent Agents
- Buyers and purchasing agents
- Art Directors
- News Analysts, Reporters, and Bloggers
NOTE, at the Fast Company site, each job listing contains and explanation of the position, why it’s hot for 2007, and suggestions for further topical reading from Fast Company articles from the past year. Some positions have a tech focus, some are design based, but they all share common ground: It takes a creative soul with an endless amount of determination and innovation to thrive in these fields.
I am sitting at the Liquified Petroleum Gas South African annual convention. The global marketing head, Michael Kelly, from the World body just presented a fascinating study of indoor pollution in Africa. I thought I wouldn’t be interested, but then he started with this fact:
Indoor smoke inhalation kills one person every 30 seconds in Africa. 1.9 million people are killed worldwide by smoke inhalation every year. Put another way, smoke inhalation and its complications account for more deaths than malaria, which is the biggest killer disease in Africa. It is the fourth biggest cause of death in developing nations.
LP Gas advocates the use of gas rather than wood/coal/oil (carbon/biomass)-based fuels. Its easy to use, easy to transport and store, and safe (much safer than paraffin/kerosene). It seems that a lot of work has to be done to get this fuel to Africa.
Just one of the ways we could upgrade Africa to be world class…
Virtual Earth is Microsoft’s answer to Google Earth. Google’s product is free, and download takes just a few minutes. I cannot find out how much Microsoft’s product costs, or where to get it (can’t be downloaded from their site). Well, it is Microsoft…
Anyway, MS’s product is in version 4, and now comes in 3D. The new 3D version of Virtual Earth is currently available for the following US cities: San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Baltimore, Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Denver, Detroit, San Jose, Phoenix and Houston. But Microsoft says it will expand to more than 100 cities internationally by the summer of 2007.
To build their 3D models, Microsoft contractors travelled around these cities in cars and planes capturing many images in rapid succession. These were automatically stamped with GPS co-ordinates. The images overlap by 90%, to ensure that each building is captured from multiple different angles. Each virtual cityscape requires approximately 10 million photos. Looks cool, if only I could find out how to get a copy…
Sept. 18 /PRNewswire/ (full report here) — As it approaches its 95th anniversary in 2007, Girl Scouting is undergoing a historic transformation to modernize the iconic organization and focus on leadership development for girls in the 21st century. Addressing each area of the organization, the transformation intends to revitalize the Girl Scout brand, create new fundraising models, improve volunteer systems, and significantly realign the national Girl Scout council infrastructure. The monumental changes have been designed to deliver a program that focuses on Girl Scouts’ core strength of leadership development, while also offering provable outcomes that benefit girls, families and communities.
The National Board of Directors also endorsed a more contemporary leadership philosophy, and renewed an organizational commitment to develop leadership skills based on the values of the Girl Scout Promise and Law. This leadership philosophy is captured by the new Girl Scout mission statement: “Girl Scouting builds girls of courage, confidence, and character who make the world a better place.”
Girl Scouting has identified some core tenets of its leadership philosophy — discover, connect and take action — which will form the basis of all Girl Scout activities beginning in October 2008. The ideas of discovery, connection and action reflect the Girl Scout view that leadership extends beyond holding a position of authority. In Girl Scouting, leadership is about self, others, community service and philanthropy. You can’t lead well unless you really understand yourself and have your set of values very well in place. Research, conducted from June 2005-2006 by the Girl Scout Research Institute (GSRI), shows most girls see the value of developing leadership skills and that girls define leadership in terms of the qualities a leader possesses and the actions she takes.
I have said many times that I am a great fan of The Economist magazine. I recommend it to all serious business leaders. This week’s edition contains a 15 page supplement on the shortage of talent around the world. The editorial and main cover story gives a brief summary of the issues the supplement deals with. If you can still get a copy of this edition, do so - its worth it!
You can read the summary below, or get it at The Economist website.
Continue reading ‘The Economist on Talent’
For many years now we have been pointing out that Boomers have swept to political power, ceasing it from the GI generation (born 1900s to 1920s), without allowing the Silent generation (born 1930s and 40s) an opportunity to be in charge. The first obvious signs of this came with the first Clinton administration, followed soon thereafter by Tony Blair. The trend spread around the world, with Boomers taking control in countries from Brazil to Germany, and Italy to Australia.
One of the anomalies was Junichiro Koizumi of Japan, who was in his 60s, but certainly looked and acted like a flamboyant Boomer. Now, however (just 2 hours ago as I write), Japan has confirmed Shinzo Abe as its new premier. He is the youngest Japanese PM in 60 years - he is only 52 years old. He is most certainly a Boomer, and it will be interesting to watch as his leadership unfolds over the next few years. Of one thing we can be sure - change will be a priority. It always is with Boomers. We can also expect Japan to get more press now, and be more involved in global affairs - Boomers like the biggest stages to play on.
OK, so maybe I’m being a bit flippant about both Japanese politics and generational theory. But mark this blog entry, and check back in a few years’ time, please. Viva, Boomers, Viva.
There is no doubt that The Economist is my favourite magazine to keep up with world affairs. It is slightly conservative, but always fair and objective, and covers a staggering array of subjects. Click here to subscribe.
The cover story of the latest edition is brilliantly written, and talks about the emergence of the “developing” world and globalisation. Well worth a read:
The balance of economic power in the world is changing. Good
IF ECONOMISTS have a tendency to trust their figures too much, politicians often pay numbers too little attention; and they do so at their peril. Napoleon dismissed Britain as a nation of shopkeepers, but its emerging might as a trading power helped fight him off. In the cold war Western strategists probably spent too much time worrying about the Soviet Union’s military clout, and not enough analysing its commercial frailties. Economics does not determine history, but it does provide the backbeat. And something dramatic has been happening to the numbers recently.
Continue reading ‘Surprise! (The new face of globalisation)’
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